fdx

This morning, JPMorgan Chase upgraded FedEx (NYSE: FDX) to "overweight" from "neutral," citing the company's "strong operating leverage" that "should drive performance for the stock when there is improvement in the economy." The brokerage also stated that bad news is already reflected in FDX's stock price. They also upped the dean of delivery's price target to $66 per share from $60 per share.

Is this upgrade a smart move or wishful thinking? I have reservations on a couple of levels, so let's address those, shall we? My first reservation is on a fundamental level. The per-barrel price of oil is rising and could continue to rise, leading to higher gas prices. If this situation occurs, we could see FedEx punished a bit, mainly because of the company's reliance on gasoline. Yes, there is a possibility that FedEx could break its reliance on black gold, but it would take a fleet of hybrid or electric vehicles for this to happen -- and that costs a lot of money.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) Q2 earnings were in line with expectations but sales beat.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) beat earnings estimates for Q1, but on horrible metrics, sending shares lower.
• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) lower Q2 earnings beat expectations and previous guidance, boosting shares.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) Q1 profit and sales dropped, but still beat expectations, sending shares higher.
• Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) posted a smaller-than-expected Q2 net loss and shares rose.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're back in the thrall of Washington, and he for one is tired of it.

You just feel like telling President Obama, "Look, stay focused on getting us out of this severe recession in a responsible way without too much budget busting and things will all come together."

Instead, you wake up, and every day's historic ... including a lot of days you don't want to be historic. Or sweeping. Or groundbreaking. Like this one.

The only thing we really want to hear is that the U.S. growth rate is going from negative to positive, or even less negative. Now in our faces is the World Bank news from China that growth there is being raised from 6.5% to 7.2%. From the Chinese I can take all sorts of sweeping and groundbreaking and even, yes, revolutionary.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX), the delivery company that competes with United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), issued its Q4 earnings report on Wednesday. At first glance, it's scary. On a GAAP basis, FedEx said it lost $2.82 per diluted share during the quarter. You say to yourself, "Man, has the recession gotten worse!" Then you take a breath and see that the loss is sourced back to goodwill charges related to the Kinko's and Watkins Motor Lines transactions. Therefore, adjusting for those elements, FedEx earned $0.64 per diluted share.

You feel a little better as a shareholder when you realize the loss has some accounting context surrounding it. The bad feelings return, however, just like a package that you forgot to put postage on, when you check the results achieved in the year-ago period. You find out that FedEx earned $1.45 per diluted share at that time. Is there any saving grace now?

Today had all the earmarks in line for another solid day of sell-offs, yet the markets held ground considering the tone this morning. The good news was low inflation, the lowest in over 50 years.

But agriculture stocks were hammered on overseas competitive news about weak pricing and demand. Then came a banking downgrade from the S&P playing catch-up. Despite the mixed performance at the end of the day, this felt like a win. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 8,497.18 (-7.49)
S&P 500: 910. 71 (-1.26)
NASDAQ: 1,808.06 (+11.88)

Top Analyst Calls

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says FedEx posted a hugely disappointing quarter, and the implications for the economy are ominous.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) (Cramer's Take) sure doesn't put its money where its mouth is. For the second quarter in a row the company said, "We are at the bottom." But then it slashed guidance deep enough for me to think, "We are nowhere near the bottom" -- it slashed guidance by about half! That means this quarter just reported proved nothing and things are deteriorating, not getting better.

This wouldn't be such a big deal if the previous "we are at the bottom" call hadn't been used by many people to call a bottom. Remember, FDX is in a unique position: huge worldwide transporter of all sorts of goods with a trusted economist, Fred Smith, at the helm.

U.S. stock futures were mixed and relatively flat Wednesday morning, following two days of losses on Wall Street on concerns about the economy. Investors will look to FedEx (NYSE: FDX) results as the shipping company is often said to keep the pulse of the economy. More inflation data is due today as well.

Wall Street also awaits to hear President Obama's plan to overhaul and modernize financial regulation. Obama aims to strengthen the government's authority over financial institutions, hoping a crisis such as the recent one can be averted in the future with proper regulation. Among the recommendations are new powers for the Federal Reserve; a new consumer protection agency to govern lending and credit; and new rules that would reach into currently unregulated regions of the financial markets.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal fourth-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 8:30 AM ET. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

For the quarter that included the package delivery service's ongoing dispute with the Teamsters and the expansion of services into Canada, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Memphis-based company to report earnings of $0.52 per share, down 64.1% from the same period of the previous year. Revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 15.4% to $8.4 billion.

Most astute market watchers have known for a long time that the package delivery companies Federal Express (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel (NYSE: UPS) are good barometers for the overall economy. When business slows down or speeds up they feel it immediately as the package count shrinks and rises.

Both stocks have lost ground the past two days with the overall market and possibly because of the slowly rising oil prices now back up to $60 a barrel.

Today's news was entirely about financial stocks. There is no denying it. We ran a full summary bank by bank showing the needs or lack thereof that Uncle Sam was going to require. But because those have all been read about over and over, today's closing bell piece revolves around some of the other winners that are outside of financial stocks. You would have never thought that 8.9% unemployment could look so good. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,574.81 +164.96 (1.96%)
S&P 500 929.21 +21.82 (2.40%)
Nasdaq 1,739.00 +22.76 (1.33%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

No one can deny the horror that was General Motors' (NYSE: GM) first quarter financial results . . . even if it did beat estimates. The automaker reported its eighth consecutive quarterly loss today -- this time in the amount of $6 billion. It also burned $10.2 billion in cash, its sales plunged 40% and it lost market share pretty much everywhere.

On that note, it's not surprising the guardians of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, The Wall Street Journal editors, despite trying to keep to a minimum any changes in the component stocks, are finally considering removing the lowest priced stock on the index.

John Prestbo, the editor and executive director of Dow Jones Indexes, said in an interview with Bloomberg Wednesday: "There are two choices for GM: bankruptcy or increased government ownership. Definitely the trend is in the direction that would force us to remove it."

To be sure, iconic FedEx (NYSE: FDX) isn't a 'back up the truck' play, but it is a suitable position for investors who can tolerate moderate risk. Here's why:

One could make a strong case that FedEx deserves to trade at the low end of it valuation, at a p/e of 10 or 12, instead of the current 21, given weak demand, and a probable, continued drop in package delivery volume in Q2 and Q3, but institutional investors aren't likely to take that stance.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Equal Weight from Underweight to reflect higher crude oil price estimates.
  
• Goldman upgraded VMware (NYSE: VMW) to Conviction Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $29 from $27 following positive checks that indicate strong business actively. The analyst expects VMW's revenue growth to be up 9% in 2009 vs. expectations for overall IT spending to be down.
  
• UBS upgraded ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $5 from $3.80 based on positive Asia checks that indicate an improving demand outlook and that the company could beat near-term expectations.
• Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) reported better-than-expected Q1 results due to cost cutting.
• Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) received several upgrades ahead of its Q4 report on the demise of Circuit City.
• Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) crushed analyst's expectations for Q4 as same-store sales rose.
• China Direct Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: CDII) Q4 earnings prospects resulted in an analyst's dowgrade.
• Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI) posted better-than-expected Q3 earnings and lifted its 2009 guidance.
• Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) was downgraded after it lowered its guidance.
• FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) fell short of Q3 earnings and revenue expectations due to economic conditions.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) did not have a great third quarter. According to estimates, the parcel service was supposed to do around $0.46 per share. FedEx delivered $0.31 per share. In the year-ago period, income was $1.26 per share. This is not a good comparison. Also, total revenue declined 14%. Talk about bleak statistics.